![]() Even a little futz of an El Niño should be sufficient for record global temperature.” Declining air pollution in China, which blocks the sun, was also increasing heating, he said. It is unlikely that the current La Niña will continue a fourth year. Prof James Hansen, at Columbia University, in New York, and colleagues said recently: “We suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the warmest year on record. ![]() So we really do need to use it and be more prepared, from having readiness of emergency services right down to what crops to plant.” “Science can now tell us when these things are coming months ahead. The fluctuating impacts of the El Niño-La Niña cycle could be seen in many regions of the world, Scaife said. “You put those two things together, and we are likely to see unprecedented heatwaves during the next El Niño.” “We know that under climate change, the impacts of El Niño events are going to get stronger, and you have to add that to the effects of climate change itself, which is growing all the time,” he said. “The probability of having the first year at 1.5C in the next five-year period is now about 50:50.” “It’s very likely that the next big El Niño could take us over 1.5C,” said Prof Adam Scaife, the head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office. This has already led to catastrophic impacts around the world, from searing heatwaves in the US and Europe to devastating floods in Pakistan and Nigeria, harming millions of people. The greenhouse gases emitted by human activities have driven up average global temperature by about 1.2C to date.
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